Obama's Middle East Bluff, and a Human Disaster

Diplomacy is often compared to a high-stakes poker game.  If that's true, then Obama is playing like notorious bluffer Phil Ivey.

For the past two years, Obama has been telling Netanyahu that the Middle East peace process was vital for Arab support against Iran.  After WikiLeaks, we know now that Obama was bluffing.  After all, he had the following information:

*As early as 2008, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was urging Obama to "“cut off the head of the [Iranian] snake.”

*King Hamad of Bahrain told Obama about the Iranian nuclear program, "That program must be stopped," he said. "The danger of letting it go on is greater than the danger of stopping it."

*The United Arab Emirates and Egypt called Iran "evil" and an "existential threat"

*Crown Prince bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi worried "not how much we know about Iran, but how much we don't."

*Jordan viewed Iran like an insidious octopus, whose tentacles should be "severed" (although, Jordan also wanted the US to help resolve the Palestinian issue)

Obama's repeated emphasis on the 2-state solution as a stepping stone to dealing with Iran simply didn't mesh with reality.  Arab leaders were already urging him in private to do something about Iran, and Obama publicly bluffed that the peace process was necessary to winning their support.  He bluffed to pressure Netanyahu to make concessions, and ultimately pushed Israel in a corner they didn't have to be in.  (I'm going to make this blog bi-partisan.  If you're conservative, skip ahead now.)

But like any good poker game, it's a lot more nuanced than it seems. (Liberals, keep reading)

The Arab leaders weren't ready to publicly condemn Iran - it would have been too politically dicey for them to appear pro-Western.  Even after the WikiLeaks came out - when anyone with an Internet connection can actually see the Arab leaders' words condemning Iran - not one has yet publicly backed up his private statements.  If the 2-state solution had succeeded, it may very well have made these leaders more comfortable publicly adopting an anti-Iran position, which I'm sure was Obama's aim all along.

**************************** Everyone back!**********************************

The above is a picture of the bus that was engulfed in flames in the massive fire in northern Israel.  41 people have died, including a 16-year-old named Elad Riven, pictured below.  Elad skipped school to volunteer fighting the fire, and he tragically got caught in the flames. 

Elad Riven, 16

This is a human disaster.  And amidst all the political games, all the manipulating, deceiving, and lying, the world leaders have come together to help Israel fight this fire.

*Erdogan of Turkey has sent planes and firefighting equipment to Israel, even in the midst of a diplomatic crisis resulting from the Gaza flotilla controversy.

*Abbas expressed his condolences to Netanyahu and offered to help, marking the first time Netanyahu and Abbas have talked since peace talks stalled in September

*Russia is sending a Boeing 747, the largest plane of its kind, even after selling arms to Iran.

*And perhaps most surprisingly, Iran is sending three airplanes to help put out the fire because "nobody will threaten Israel but us!" 

It's beautifully simple how all the word games in the world can't get these leaders to agree on anything, but when it comes to a human tragedy, everyone knows to put down the cards and help out.  There is a common morality, even in this high-stakes political poker game.  

Maybe the holiday spirit is catching on.